Simulate Plinko Betting Strategies with Your Own Settings

What the simulator actually does

The simulator is a local, offline tool. It is not the provider demo and it does not connect to any game server. It works in two modes: replaying recorded drop sequences from BGaming Original Plinko at 16 rows, or generating synthetic sequences from a seeded random model that mirrors the same pocket structure. Because the seed is fixed, any run you perform can be reproduced exactly by entering the same seed, the same risk level and the same rule settings.

For each of the three risk levels — low, medium (shown as Normal in the game interface) and high — the tool holds a sample of 1000 recorded drops, with the first 10 drops excluded as preliminary warm-up data. Every strategy is then applied drop by drop, settling each stake against the actual multiplier that landed, so partial payouts below the stake count as losses exactly as they would in the real game.

Practical workflow from settings to CSV

A typical session starts on the simulator settings panel. Choose your risk level, pick recorded or seeded mode, then configure the bank, base stake, stake cap, percentage size and stop limits. Run the simulation, watch the bankroll curve on the chart, and export the CSV for your own spreadsheet analysis. The chart plots settled bank after every paid drop; the CSV contains one row per drop with stake, multiplier, payout, net result and running bank, so you can audit every single decision the rule made.

A disciplined workflow is: first run a fixed-stake baseline at 1 FUN per drop to see the raw behaviour of the sample; then run your chosen progression rule with identical seed and risk; finally compare the two curves. If the progression only looks better because it happened to dodge one bad stretch, the CSV will show you exactly where.

• Set bank, base stake and cap before touching any rule.
• Always run the fixed-stake baseline first on the same seed.
• Export the CSV before changing parameters so runs stay comparable.
• Change one variable at a time between runs.

What the ten rules and four patterns mean in practice

The ten rules cover the hypotheses French players search for most often. Martingale doubles after a loss and resets after a profitable result — but note that a loss means any payout below the stake, so partial returns make the classic 2x recovery assumption invalid. Capped Martingale with factor 2 and a maximum of four steps uses stakes of 1, 2, 4, 8 and 16 FUN, and resets after a fifth consecutive net loss or any net-positive result. Those five bets expose 31 FUN before returns, and this is a reset trigger, not a guaranteed loss cap. The Percentage rule starts at 1% of bank, so at a 1000 FUN bank the first stake is 10 FUN, not 1. D’Alembert adds one unit after a loss and subtracts one after a profit, never below base. Fibonacci advances one step after a loss and moves two steps back after a profit. Paroli doubles after wins and resets after three winning steps or any loss, while 1-3-2-6 progresses after wins and resets on any loss.

The four fixed pattern candidates were frozen in advance and are tested only on fresh data. A100 fires when the previous five pocket distances read 1–2, 3 or more, 1–2, 1–2, 3 or more, placing one 100 FUN stake then eight paid 1 FUN drops. B50 and B100 trigger on three distances of 4 or more followed by exactly 1 and exactly 1, staking 50 or 100 FUN then three ordinary paid drops. C25 fires when the previous 16 pockets contain at most one exact centre, staking 25 FUN then three ordinary drops. These are hypotheses to be measured, not signals with proven edge.

Reading outputs: early stop, overshoot and restart

Stop limits check your settled net result against thresholds of -20 and +20 FUN. The check happens after a drop settles, so a single drop can carry the net past the threshold — this is overshoot, and the tool reports it honestly rather than pretending the stop executed at exactly -20. An early stop means the rule halted before the sample was exhausted; the output tells you at which drop and at what net figure.

Restart is frequently misunderstood. When you restart after a stop, only the cycle reference resets: the stop counters and progression state begin again, but your remaining bank carries over and every subsequent drop is still a paid drop drawn from the same sequence. A restart is not a free reset to 1000 FUN, and the tool never treats it as one. This matters when comparing rules, because a rule that stops early three times and restarts has consumed real bankroll each cycle.

Two worked examples with explicit hypothetical arithmetic

Example one: high risk, bank 1000 FUN, Capped Martingale with base 1 FUN and cap 100 FUN. Walk the arithmetic hypothetically. A full progression stakes 1, 2, 4, 8 and 16 FUN, exposing 31 FUN before any returns. On high risk, five consecutive below-stake outcomes can each still return 0.2x, so the worst stretch returns 6.2 FUN on that 31 FUN exposed — a net of -24.8 FUN from one progression, even though every drop paid something. Interpretation: the rule does not fail because of bad luck alone; its recovery logic is structurally mismatched to a game where most losses return something, because Martingale counting treats partial payouts as full losses.

Example two: medium risk, bank 1000 FUN, Percentage rule at 1%. The first stake is 10 FUN because the rule floors 1% of the current bank to a whole FUN amount. Follow the arithmetic hypothetically: if that stake lands a 0.3x multiplier, the return is 3 FUN, the bank falls to 993 FUN, and the next stake is 9 FUN, not a decimal 9.93. A 0.3x return is a net loss despite returning part of the stake. Stop limits are a separate fixed-stake preset in this tool; they are not combined with the Percentage rule. To compare them, run each preset separately on the same risk sample with the same starting bank, then compare turnover, final net and maximum drawdown. A positive result belongs to that sample and those settings. A different recorded segment or random seed can change its sign.

Honest limits and the French context

The simulator cannot forecast real outcomes. Recorded samples are finite historical observations; seeded runs are synthetic. Neither tells you what the next drop in any live session will do. The underlying mathematics — for example a 1 in 32768 chance per drop of hitting either edge pocket at 16 rows — does not change because a strategy is applied on top. Actual measured results from our own study runs are presented in a separate evidence module on the results page, and this article deliberately invents none.

For readers in France: the ANJ states that online casino games are not authorised in France, and a French-language interface or euro account does not make an offer authorised. This project is for free learning, mathematics and demo observation only, with all credits in FUN. We do not provide bypass instructions of any kind. Any commercial play link on this site is rendered separately and its availability is unverified.

If you want to go deeper, compare rule behaviour across risk levels on the odds and multipliers page. Replay the free provider demo to see the interface yourself, or return to the simulator and rerun the hypothetical arithmetic above with your own settings to see how the mechanics behave.

Want to test a Plinko predictor idea? Record probabilities before revealing fresh model drops in the probability and forecast trainer.